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Cable Technology Feature Article

April 02, 2009

SNL Kagan Forecasts a Gloomy Future for the Broadcast Industry

By Raju Shanbhag, TMCnet Contributor

Predicting a gloomy future for the already battered radio and TV industry, SNL Kagan states that the radio and TV revenues will continue to fall in 2009. In its report titled, “Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook,” the company states that the revenues may pick up for this industry in the long run.
Like every other industry, even the broadcast industry is hit by the economic downturn on a global scale. The cost conscious marketers are spending less on advertisements than ever before and the customers are not willing to spend the money on paid content.
The radio revenues were down 10.0 percent to $17.7 billion in 2007 with local and national spot TV ad revenues dropping 6.9 percent to $20.1 billion, states SNL Kagan. There will be even more reduction in revenues in 2009, according to the company estimates. The company estimates declines of at least 15.0 percent for radio and 15.7 percent for TV stations.
“The outlook for 2009 indicates another grim year for broadcast revenues," said Robin Flynn, senior analyst at SNL Kagan. "Those radio and TV station owners who are able to reduce expenses while continuing to transition their business models to develop digital assets and non-traditional revenue streams will survive and reemerge as more efficient operations. If broadcasters have an advantage over Internet companies, it is their reach within local communities.”
SNL Kagan predicts modest growth in 2010 which will be sustained through 2013 offsetting some of the declines of 2008-2009. SNL Kagan expects radio revenues to decline by a CAGR of 1.9 percent and TV revenues to drop 2.0 percent. Considering overall broadcast revenue trends, market demographics and projected ad revenues in determining a market's growth potential, “Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook: Market-by-Market Revenue Projections," published annually by SNL Kagan for over 20 years.
Recently, the company released its latest report, Cable MSO Ownership: A Geographic Analysis, featuring detailed maps of cable MSO systems at the state and national level, as well as subscriber cluster analysis and data on subscribers served by cable MSOs in key markets. The report demonstrates the cable market with a national interactive map, which enables comparison of various MSOs geographically.

Raju Shanbhag is a contributing editor for TMCnet. To read more of Raju’s articles, please visit his columnist page.

Edited by Jessica Kostek